The Organised Private Sector and the Nigeria Labour Congress have warned that Nigeria is edging towards a full-blown economic crisis as petrol prices climb towards N1,400 per litre in many parts of the country.

The latest spike follows a series of increases by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, whose ex-depot price has reportedly risen to about N1,275 per litre, its fifth upward adjustment in March. Pump prices have since jumped from around N1,240 to between N1,340 and nearly N1,400, with northern states seeing the steepest costs.

Analysts link the surge to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have driven up global crude prices and exposed Nigeria’s lack of buffers. From an average of N839 per litre before late February, petrol now costs roughly N500 more, with projections that it could reach N1,500 to N2,000 if the crisis deepens and key shipping routes are disrupted.

Labour leaders argue that Nigerians are paying the price of a de facto monopoly in the downstream sector. The NLC says the market has become a seller’s arena dominated by a few powerful players who effectively dictate prices, while government policy and support have entrenched their position.

The union insists that public refineries can work efficiently if properly managed and staffed, and urges citizens, unions, and civil society to organise against what it describes as monopolistic control over essential commodities. It also calls for crude oil to be supplied in naira to domestic refineries, including Dangote, to reduce exposure to foreign exchange volatility and stabilise local fuel prices.

The NLC further criticises the absence of strategic petroleum reserves, noting that the near-instant impact of global price shocks on Nigeria suggests either that reserves do not exist or that they are not being deployed. While rejecting price caps as unsuitable for Nigeria’s economic structure, it advocates temporary, targeted subsidies at the point of production to cushion consumers without fully re-regulating the market.

From the private sector, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry blames excessive and multiple taxation on refiners for inflating pump prices and urges a review of the fiscal regime. The Nigerian Employers’ Consultative Association warns that soaring energy costs are squeezing manufacturers, farmers, and logistics operators, shrinking profit margins and threatening closures and job losses.

NECA describes the situation as an “oil paradox” in which rising crude prices boost government revenue but simultaneously drive domestic inflation and deepen the cost-of-living crisis, unless urgent measures are taken to stabilise supply, support vulnerable sectors, and accelerate a transition to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources.