Nigeria’s lubricant market is bracing for a potential supply crunch as global base oil availability tightens and prices surge, constraining cargoes into West Africa. Industry analysts warn that the squeeze could ripple through transport, manufacturing and power generation, where lubricants are critical to keeping engines and machinery running.

Base oils are the primary feedstock for finished lubricants used in automotive, marine and industrial applications. West Africa, and Nigeria in particular, rely heavily on imported base oils, with average inflows of about 135,752 tonnes a year over the past five years, according to energy and commodity intelligence provider Argus.

Argus base oil specialist Gabriella Twinning said disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict have tightened global supply and pushed prices to record levels, even after announcements of a peace deal. Lower availability and higher prices are discouraging exporters from sending cargoes to West Africa, where buyers are more price-sensitive and face complex payment channels.

The last major base oil shipments into the region arrived in March, and replacement cargoes are expected to be scarce through the summer. European Group I base oils, a workhorse grade for engine, marine and industrial lubricants, have been hit by maintenance at PK Orlen’s refinery, which removed bulk volumes from the spot market. In the US, refiners are prioritising domestic demand and building stocks ahead of hurricane season, while crude slate changes at some Group I plants further constrain output.

Nigeria’s long-anticipated relief, the base oil unit within the Dangote refinery complex, has yet to start production. Until it does, local blenders remain exposed to global supply shocks and freight disruptions.

Some Nigerian buyers are exploring a shift from Group I to Group II heavy grades where product formulations allow. These alternatives are more available outside Asia, but Asian producers are directing barrels to South America, where buyers are paying higher premiums.

Russian volumes, once a flexible source of supply, have also fallen as several refineries undergo repairs. At the same time, spot prices have climbed to their highest levels since the onset of the US-Iran conflict, making any cargo into West Africa increasingly uneconomic.

Analysts say West African blenders may be forced to raise ex-tank prices and bid more aggressively to secure barrels, even as demand remains firm despite the rainy season. With tanks running low and no significant replenishment since March, Nigeria’s lubricant market is entering a period of heightened vulnerability.