President Bola Tinubu’s political strategy ahead of the 2027 general elections is being framed largely around his assessment of voter sentiment in Northern Nigeria, according to activist and lawyer Deji Adeyanju

Adeyanju, a regular commentator on national politics, contends that the presidency’s primary concern is not opposition from the South or internal dissent within the ruling party, but the risk of a coordinated political pushback from northern leaders and voters

He asserts that within the presidency and the All Progressives Congress there is growing concern that the North could repeat what he terms the Goodluck Jonathan scenario, referring to the 2015 election in which then President Jonathan lost office following a significant shift of northern support to Muhammadu Buhari

According to Adeyanju, Tinubu’s team believes that northern political elites may already be assessing alternative candidates and forming alliances that could reduce the president’s chances of re election. He links this perceived risk to several recent political decisions by the administration, including efforts to manage relations with influential northern politicians, traditional institutions and emerging political platforms

Adeyanju also maintains that Tinubu does not currently perceive a major electoral threat from the South, where he is considered to have long standing political networks. In his analysis, the decisive arena remains the North, whose population size and history of bloc voting have frequently influenced presidential outcomes in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

Political analysts have consistently observed that no presidential candidate has secured nationwide victory without substantial northern support, and Adeyanju’s comments align with this pattern. His remarks feed into an ongoing discussion about whether Tinubu can maintain the coalition that facilitated his initial victory, in the context of economic pressures, security challenges and internal party frictions

The presidency has not issued a direct response to Adeyanju’s claims. However, officials close to Tinubu have stated that the administration’s focus is on balanced development across all regions and that it is not dependent on any single regional power base. Adeyanju’s intervention highlights the expectation that northern political dynamics will remain central to the configuration of alliances and strategies as the 2027 election approaches