Japan’s birth slump has entered its 10th consecutive year, underscoring the scale of the demographic crisis confronting Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her government.

Preliminary figures from the health ministry show 705,809 babies were born nationwide in 2025, a 2.1 percent decline from the previous year. The tally covers births to Japanese citizens at home and abroad, as well as children born in Japan to foreign parents, and marks yet another low in a country long accustomed to shrinking cohorts of newborns.

The latest data arrive as Japan’s overall population continues to contract. The internal affairs ministry estimates the population at 122.86 million, down about 580,000 people, or 0.47 percent, from a year earlier. Deaths still far outnumber births, with 1,605,654 people dying in 2025, though that figure dipped slightly by 0.8 percent.

Marriage patterns offer only faint encouragement. Some 505,656 couples wed in 2025, a modest 1.1 percent increase, while divorces fell 3.7 percent to 182,969. Demographers note that even when marriages tick up, they no longer translate into the larger families seen in previous generations, as economic insecurity, long working hours and high urban living costs weigh on decisions to have children.

Japan, the world’s fourth-largest economy, now has one of the lowest birth rates and fastest-ageing populations on the planet. The consequences are visible across society: labour shortages in key sectors, a swelling social security bill and a shrinking base of working-age taxpayers to support the elderly. Public debt, already the highest among major economies relative to output, is projected to rise further as welfare costs mount.

The demographic shift is also hollowing out rural Japan. Entire communities are fading as young people leave for cities and do not return. Official surveys suggest around four million homes nationwide now stand abandoned, and a recent study warns that more than 40 percent of municipalities face the risk of “extinction” as their populations dwindle.

Successive governments have pledged to “turn around” the birth rate, with limited success. Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, has framed the crisis as a “quiet state of emergency” that threatens the country’s vitality. Her administration has expanded childcare subsidies and endorsed local initiatives such as Tokyo’s government-run dating app, which requires users to prove they are single and sign a declaration that they are willing to marry.

Yet one of the most direct levers for easing demographic pressure—immigration—remains politically fraught. Economists widely argue that admitting more foreign workers could help stabilise the labour force and support growth. But Takaichi, under pressure from the nationalist Sanseito party and right-leaning factions within her own Liberal Democratic Party, has promised tighter immigration controls even as she calls for a “stronger economy” to make raising children more affordable.

Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masanao Ozaki acknowledged that recent policies have fallen short. While citing “some successes” in easing the burden on families, he conceded that the government has “not managed to reverse this trend” and stressed that sustained economic strength is essential if Japan is to have any hope of lifting its birth numbers.