Morocco enters the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) as the statistical and analytical favorite. The team’s current roster, recent performance metrics, and home advantage position them as the most likely candidate for the title. However, historical data and tournament volatility introduce significant uncertainty. This analysis outlines six primary factors supporting Morocco’s potential for success, as well as four key risks that could impede their campaign. Achraf Hakimi’s status is central to both sets of arguments.

Six Factors Supporting Morocco’s AFCON Title Chances

1. Squad Depth and Quality
Morocco’s squad is rated among the highest in Africa based on player valuations, club affiliations, and recent international performance. Key players include goalkeeper Yacine Bounou, central defenders with extensive international experience, and midfielders such as Azzedine Ounahi, who demonstrated high performance at the World Cup. Forwards Youssef En-Nesyri and Ayoub Al-Kaabi have consistent goal-scoring records, and Brahim Díaz led AFCON qualifying in goals. The squad’s depth allows for tactical flexibility and resilience to injuries or suspensions.

2. Achraf Hakimi’s Impact
Achraf Hakimi, recently named African Footballer of the Year, is statistically one of the most influential players in African football. His contributions at Paris Saint-Germain, measured by goals, assists, and defensive actions, indicate a high probability of match impact. His presence increases Morocco’s expected goal differential and provides leadership in high-pressure scenarios.

3. World Cup Experience
A significant portion of the squad participated in Morocco’s 2022 World Cup semifinal run. This experience correlates with improved performance under tournament conditions, as measured by composure in high-stakes matches and familiarity with elite competition. The team’s recent results against top-ranked opponents suggest a developed winning mentality.

4. Home Advantage
Empirical studies show that host nations in major tournaments benefit from increased win probabilities due to crowd support, reduced travel fatigue, and familiarity with local conditions. Morocco’s fan base is among the most active in Africa, and logistical advantages are expected to contribute positively to performance outcomes.

5. Tactical Development Under Walid Regragui
Since Walid Regragui’s appointment, Morocco’s tactical metrics,such as possession rates, defensive solidity, and goal conversion,have improved. The team’s 18-match winning streak is a current world record, and squad management has minimized internal disruptions. Regragui’s approach has increased squad cohesion, particularly among dual nationals.

6. Emerging Talent and Squad Rotation
The presence of young players such as Hamza Igamane, Ismael Saibari, and others provides depth and competition for starting positions. This reduces the risk of performance decline due to injuries or suspensions and allows for effective rotation during a congested tournament schedule.

Four Risks That Could Undermine Morocco’s Campaign

1. Psychological Pressure
Morocco’s status as favorites introduces significant psychological stress. Historical data from previous tournaments indicates that host nations and pre-tournament favorites often underperform relative to expectations due to increased pressure. The 50-year gap since Morocco’s last AFCON title amplifies this risk.

2. Hakimi’s Fitness
Hakimi has not played competitively since an ankle injury in November. Medical reports and training data suggest uncertainty regarding his match fitness. A lack of full recovery or re-injury could significantly reduce Morocco’s expected performance, given his central role in both attack and defense.

3. Historical Underperformance as Favorites
Morocco has previously entered AFCON tournaments as favorites and failed to meet expectations. The 2022 World Cup squad was eliminated early in the last AFCON, and highly rated teams in the 1980s and 1990s also failed to secure the title. This pattern suggests a potential psychological or structural barrier in high-pressure situations.

4. Tournament Volatility and Strong Opposition
AFCON is characterized by high variance in match outcomes. Several teams,Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal, and Ivory Coast,possess the quality to defeat Morocco in knockout scenarios. The single-elimination format increases the impact of random events, and one poor performance could result in elimination regardless of overall team strength.

Conclusion

Morocco’s current squad quality, tactical evolution, and home advantage make them the statistical favorite for the 2024 AFCON title. However, the combination of psychological pressure, potential fitness issues for key players, historical underperformance, and tournament unpredictability introduces significant downside risk. Achraf Hakimi’s availability and performance are likely to be decisive. While Morocco’s probability of success is higher than that of any other team, the outcome remains uncertain due to the inherent volatility of knockout football tournaments.