Nigerian airlines are trapped in a dangerous pricing limbo as the cost of aviation fuel has soared by about 180 per cent in barely two months, yet ticket prices on key domestic routes have barely moved.

Jet A1, which sold for about N900 per litre in January, now averages roughly N2,500 per litre across the country, according to figures from major fuel marketers. Sokoto currently records the highest rate at N2,557 per litre, followed closely by Kano at N2,554, while Lagos, at about N2,500, is the cheapest.

Fuel is the single largest operating cost for airlines, typically consuming around 40 per cent of their expenditure, ahead of maintenance and leasing. With such a steep jump in prices, operators would ordinarily be expected to pass a significant portion of the burden to passengers.

Instead, fares on busy domestic routes such as Lagos–Abuja, Lagos–Port Harcourt and Kano–Lagos have remained in a relatively narrow band of about N106,000 to N147,000. Checks on multiple booking platforms show Lagos–Abuja tickets on several carriers still selling around N110,000 to N147,000, similar to levels seen before the latest fuel spike.

Airline insiders say this apparent restraint is not a sign of financial strength but of intense competitive pressure in a crowded market with weakening demand. Nigeria currently has about 15 scheduled domestic operators, with at least two more recently certified to begin operations, even as passenger traffic has been slipping. Official data show total passenger movements on domestic and international routes have declined from about 16.2 million to 15.6 million over the past few years.

“Instead of going up, the pressure on pricing is downwards because of the number of players and the pricing they have entered the market with,” one airline source said, adding that carriers are “struggling to remain in business.”

Aviation analyst Olumide Ohunayo warns that even if airlines eventually raise fares, the increases may still be insufficient to offset the fuel shock. He argues that Nigeria’s Jet A1 prices are significantly higher than in many other markets and criticises the absence of meaningful government relief, such as tax cuts or the release of strategic reserves, which some countries have used to cushion operators and passengers.

Retired pilot Muhammad Badamosi notes that airlines are also constrained by the fear of driving travellers back to road transport. With household incomes under pressure, he says, many Nigerians are already cutting non-essential trips, forcing airlines to walk a tightrope between survival and losing their customer base.